Good news: I got three guys to put up a total of $1000 against the bet in my recent post, “Ice Ice Maybe (not)”:

It is very safe to say the Arctic Sea will be essentially ice free by 2030, and I’d personally bet on 2020 – any takers?

Not so good news: The “takers” are not global warming doubters, quite the reverse – they are three well-known and knowledgeable climate bloggers – James Annan, William Connolley, and Brian Schmidt – and James and William are certifiable climate experts.

That said, I think I’m going to win this, as I’ll explain. I estimate the odds at at least 2 to 1 in my favor – no this isn’t the same kind of 100-to-1 lock the hydrogen bet is – though James, William, and Brian have, unintentionally, given me (slightly) better than even odds. Let’s start with the bet:

At no time between now and the end of the year 2020 will the minimum total Arctic Sea ice extent be less than 10% of the 1979-2000 average minimum annual Arctic Sea ice extent, as measured by NSIDC data or any other measurement mutually agreed-upon; provided, however, that if two or more volcanic eruptions with the energy level equal to or greater than the 1991 Mount Pinatubo shall occur between now and the end of 2020, then all bets are voided.

The 10% minimum covers me against straggling ice. I also asked for the two-Pinatubo voiding – I didn’t want to lose this bet if warming is temporarily slowed by an unusual series of big volcanoes.

Why will I win?